Jakarta - The government will impose restrictions on the use of fuel oil (BBM) subsidy to the all black plate vehicle in April 2011. Obviously, this policy is positive and a negative value or profit and loss for the government, Pertamina, communities and businesses filling stations.
But for observers petroleum Dr Kurtibi, government policy is a mistaken idea. Even this policy is the same meaning to raise fuel prices twice covertly. Dr Kurtubi ask discourse fuel restriction is canceled.
"The policy of restrictions on fuel subsidies in substance this is the wrong policy and not appropriate. Therefore, this policy does not need to be continued and should be canceled," said Kurtubi.
Kurtubi also reminded that this restriction policies when actually implemented have been colliding and breaking decision of the Constitutional Court has revoked Article 28 Paragraph 2 of Law No. 22 of 2001 concerning oil and gas.
"Even this government's policy would violate the 1945 constitution. And this could be an entrance for the impeachment to the president of this wrong decision," said Kurtubi.
Here are excerpts of an interview with AFP M Rizal from petroleum observer Dr Kurtubi:
How the government plans which will make restrictions on subsidized fuel in Greater Jakarta in April 2011?
Indeed, I hear the government's plan to implement restrictions on fuel subsidies in the Greater Jakarta in April this year. But the target will be no restrictions on fuel subsidies in Indonesia in 2013, if not wrong. In my opinion, this policy of limiting fuel subsidies in substance is the wrong policy and not appropriate. Therefore, this policy does not need to be continued and should be canceled.
The reason, the first fuel subsidy policy of restriction is not an energy policy right. Because herding communities using oil moved into the oil, moving from Premium to Pertamax. Energy policy should have long-term vision should be moved from oil to non-oil. Because we are a little oil, its production continues to fall, whereas it produced a lot of gas.
Second, why this policy is wrong is because of this move, compel or forbid people to buy premium, especially black plate and vehicle owners were forced to buy Pertamax that cost 100 percent of market price. Where the world oil market prices were very volatile and highly unstable and likely will continue to rise. It may be in April next Pertamax price
can penetrate the price of Rp 9,000 per liter. This means that the price increase in disguise, because the people forcibly removed from the price of Rp 4,500 to the price of Rp 9,000. This impact on the economy very rapidly, because this increases to fuel prices doubled.
Third, this policy is wrong because it forces people to buy fuel whose price is 100 per cent already at market prices. This decision contradicts and violates the Constitutional Court (MK). In 2004, the Constitutional Court has revoked Article 28 Paragraph 2 of the Act (Act) No 22 Tahunn 2001 on Oil and Gas, which says that fuel prices in Indonesia will be submitted to the market mechanism. That is, the government did not interfere in pricing, it's up to players in the market. This is according to the Constitutional Court violated the 1945 Constitution, which has been revoked.
Now with the policy of subsidized fuel restrictions, the people owning the vehicle will be exposed to the policy indiscriminately, whether the vehicle upper middle class or lower middle, all have to buy fuel at market prices. So automatically this policy violates the Constitutional Court decision. Remember, that the Court's decision is final and remember. It could be the economists or the initiator of this policy do not agree with the Court's decision, but this decision is final and binding, can not be contested.
So in addition to this policy is wrong, in addition, also if this policy is still applied to the control will also be difficult. How yellow plate vehicles and motorcycles whose numbers 50-60 million units were no longer sell back the premium. That job is difficult, almost impossible to control. While the huge price difference between the Premium and Pertamax, it will encourage the yellow license plate vehicles and motorcycles to sell back the premium, because they can be a big profit. Impossible is controlled.
Also, why this policy is wrong, who would suffer from it are definitely the people. Indeed there is a benefit, ie refueling stations or non Pertamina gas station. We know them by naked eye during this very few customers, be it a gas station Petronas, Shell and Total. They have a nice gas station and grand and good service, but empty of customers. But with the policy that forced people to buy Pertamax or Super Premium or the like, then automatically non Pertamina's gas stations it will acquire a new customer overflow. Apart from those who benefited, also suppliers or HOMC High Octane fuel.
This means that the fuel subsidy policy of restriction is not effective?
Ineffective, because it cost the state and the people. It only benefits the group alone. Like I said non Pertamina gas stations and suppliers HOMC or materials to increase octane fuel it.
That is why I since many months ago has urged the government not need mewacanakan or continue this policy.
The reason the government imposed restrictions on fuel subsidies this because almost 75 percent of fuel subsidies fall into the wrong hands, really like it?
It may be true, one might also think like that. There are many types of fuel purchased Premium upper middle class, could have been. To eliminate or reduce subsidies there is a more rational and reasonable, not by force like this play. The trick was to reduce subsidies that one target, the first is to do the conversion or transfer or use of premium fuel for transportation by Fuel Gas (CNG).
Second, increase gradually the price premium for the black plate vehicle. It will at some point, when subsidies are removed, then the premium is increased until the price subsidy scheme was missing. So do not force people to buy Pertamax or Super.
Approximately how much can be saved by limiting the fuel subsidy and how much profit the government itself?
With restrictions on subsidized fuel is, of course, a number of premium savings that are no longer sold in subsidies the government or Pertamina.
For example, if the premium is the amount of 10 million kilo liters, the profit multiplied by 10 million kilo liters of premium subsidy. That benefits and savings on fuel subsidies that restriction. But people should spend more to get fuel as much as the number of vehicles multiplied by the difference in price black plate Pertamax reduced premium, which is currently Pertamax Rp 8,500.
In addition there will be a price increase of goods and services, rising inflation, higher interest rates, declining investment, increased unemployment, reduced purchasing power and increasing the number of poor people. This policy of limiting the impact of fuel itself.
The effect of rising inflation itself specifics?
That would be very significant to the effects of rising inflation. Because, an industry that has a black plate vehicle for transporting goods or employees or to sell goods and services, it all wore black plate vehicle. Automatic with this policy, costs will rise.
Similarly, households with a black plate car, then the cost of household expenses will increase. Small and Medium Enterprise (SME), Independent Business, Hospitality or stall walking with the vehicle also suffered with the cost of fuel has doubled. End price of goods and services rise, inflation will increase.
Many losses of society, well how would face Pertamina gas station itself if this policy is enforced?
Of course this is a problem too. All gas stations or gas stations will pay big for dispenser or tanks could store and sell Pertamax. This investment should they spend, which is actually not necessary. It should money be used for more productive investments or prioritized better. Pity the entrepreneurs of this gas station that does not alleged that it will spend on this erroneous policy.
What alternatives or other options besides the limitation of fuel subsidies this?
As I mentioned above earlier. A good alternative is the concentration of government immediately to build gas infrastructure for vehicles to use CNG. First to public transportation, therefore the government must quickly build a gas pipeline network or from Tanjung Priok in North Jakarta is channeled directly into pools taxis, buses Transjakarta, PPD, Mayasaraibhakti. So that all public transport was fill CNG in poolnya respectively.
The second phase of building the infrastructure of gas at the pump that there is empty land. Well, at the vacant gas station that is connected with gas pipes. Well, this second stage to enact policies of all private vehicle or license plate can use the BBG all black. It's just that the use of CNG should not be forced, that does not want to use the BBG should be respected and should not be forced. They can still use Pertamax or Premium, but the price has been raised. Once the right way, so there is no aggrieved party.
What must be remembered that gas price advantage is more expensive than Premium. As an illustration, the gas price paid by Transjakarta, Taxi and Bajaj is Rp 3,100 per liter of gas equivalent without subsidies. While Premium Rp 4,500 per liter was also subsidized. Business actors are lucky, Pertamina has been lucky, lucky PGN also sell gas. In addition, the city's air is cleaner with gas, because the pollution is reduced. Assuredness of supply of gas is still 50 years could be assured, because the gas in Indonesia more than oils.
This should have worked on the government, not making it up to create a discourse sudbsidi fuel restrictions. First, the plan restrictions on production kenadaraan 2005 that prohibited purchasing Premium. Then came again the discourse over 2,500 cc cars are prohibited from buying Premium. Discourse reappears Premium motors are prohibited from buying. Eh, now instead of all vehicles are prohibited from buying Premium black plate. This is all the policy ideas that wrong! I have long talked of this, but the government still want to impose.
Greatest risk is if the government still forced people to buy Pertamax that cost 100 percent market value. That almost certainly been violated Kosntitusi Court decision and the 1945 Constitution. This could be a gateway for impeachment of President, because it violates the constitution.
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